Yeah, buddy! Another stellar night in the realm of fight picking. Last week at UFC on Fox 2 I went 8-2. That brings my overall record to 27-8, or 77.1% in the money. Aaaah, it feels good. And I have an opportunity to add another 11 points to the “win” column for this event.
And what a great event it is. I know for most UFC 143 lost a ton of luster with Georges St-Pierre going down to injury, but if you are a real fight fan, you have to be just as excited, if not more-so, for Nick Diaz vs. Carlos Condit. This new main event has all the makings of “Fight of the Year.” So when you are watching, don’t blink. Add in a few undefeated fighters, a few high touted newcomers, and the return of Fabricio Werdum, you have a very good fight card.
For those of you who don’t know, the favorite will have a negative (-) number, while the underdog will have a positive (+) number. MMA money lines are based on units of $100. If the favorite is -225, it means that you have to wager $225 to win $100. But if you are betting on the underdog, the formula is different. If the underdog is at +185, it means that if you wager $100 you will win $185 for a total of $285. Easy enough, right? Good.
If you guys are going to bet, head over to Bodog.com. As always, I appreciate half of your earnings. (Or just purchase something from the store and we’ll call it even)
Facebook.com/UFC Card
Middleweight bout: Rafael Natal (-185) vs. Michael Kuiper (+150)
Natal is a little tank and is a well-rounded fighter. But he’s going up against an undefeated BJJ champion with well above average striking. Not only that, Kuiper enjoys about a six inch height advantage. Kuiper’s length will give Natal trouble.
My Pick: Kuiper, Round 1, Submission
Welterweight bout: Dan Stittgen (+215) vs. Stephen Thompson (-275)
Well it’s about time that Thompson got into the UFC. The guy holds a ridiculous 56-0 kickboxing record, and is 5-0 in MMA competition. Unless Stittgen finds a way to take him down and keep him there, he’ll be looking up at the lights pretty quickly.
My Pick: Thompson, Round 1, (T)KO
FX Card
Welterweight bout: Matt Brown (-300) vs. Chris Cope (+230)
MATT BROWN! Haha! I always pick Brown. Don’t know why, but he’s THAT guy. Good thing he has some skills to back up my picks. Looking at this match up, these guys are very similar fighters. But Brown is better at everything, head to head (and I’m not just saying that). Cope could catch Brown, but I doubt it.
My Pick: Brown, Round 2, Submission
Bantamweight bout: Alex Caceres (+110) vs. Edwin Figueroa (-140)
This fight will come down to which Caceres shows up. If the “smart” Caceres shows up that keeps his opponents at bay with his striking and doesn’t let him inside shows up, this will be a long fight for Figueroa. If the previous Caceres shows up, he’ll be choked out quickly. I’m going with the “new” Caceres to show up, and we’ll get to watch a tactical striking match.
My Pick: Caceres, Round 3, Decision
Welterweight bout: Matthew Riddle (-400) vs. Henry Martinez (+300)
Martinez is taking this fight on very short notice and has fought at Featherweight before. He’s the much smaller fighter and gives up strength as well. He’ll probably be able to stave off a finish, but he’s going to be dominated.
My Pick: Riddle, Round 3, Decision
Featherweight bout: Dustin Poirier (-500) vs. Max Holloway (+350)
Holloway is the youngest fighter in the UFC (20yrs old) and is very “green” in the sport. He’s undefeated, but he’s only 4-0. His inexperience coupled with the fact he’s fighting one of the best 145-pounders on the planet, doesn’t boded well for the newcomer.
My Pick: Poirer, Round 1, Submission
PPV Card
Middleweight bout: Ed Herman (-300) vs. Clifford Starks (+230)
Starks is a big middleweight with great power and he’s undefeated, but Herman is just a better all around fighter. He’s better on the ground and his striking, while not his go-to skill, is very technical. Outside of a bomb landed by Starks, Herman will get this to the ground and find a way to lock in a choke.
My Pick: Herman, Round 2, Submission
Bantamweight bout: Renan Barão (-225) vs. Scott Jorgensen (+175)
This is one of the hardest picks on this card. Barão is an animal and on a tear, not losing since his very first professional bout. That’s a 28 fight unbeaten streak. But he’s never faced an opponent with the wrestling credentials of Scott Jorgensen. Overall, I think Barão is more skilled, but the way MMA fights are scored, the wrestling will be the deciding factor.
My Pick: Jorgensen, Round 3, Decision
Welterweight bout: Josh Koscheck (-265) vs. Mike Pierce (+205)
Pierce is a tough opponent for anyone at 170 pounds. But Koscheck is widely regarded as a top 5 welterweight. He has fantastic wrestling and vicious power. Pierce says Koshcheck can’t knock him out. Maybe, maybe not, but Koshcheck can easily out-point him.
My Pick: Koscheck, Round 3, Decision
Heavyweight bout: Roy Nelson (+120) vs. Fabricio Werdum (-150)
Nelson is giving up size and strength to Werdum, but he has the speed advantage with a very powerful right hand. Werdum’s striking has improved by leaps and bounds and he’s always a force to be reckoned with on the ground, but Nelson won’t take it there. He’s going to keep it standing, and in that aspect, I favor the smaller, faster, fighter.
My Pick: Nelson, Round 2, (T)KO
Interim Welterweight Championship bout: Nick Diaz (-225) vs. Carlos Condit (+175)
This fight is going to be fan-freakin’-tastic! I’m more hyped for this fight than I could ever be for Condit/GSP or Diaz/GSP. Where GSP would look to take both of these guys down, that will not happen this Saturday. This fight is going to be toe-to-toe fireworks from the opening bell. It’s either going to be Diaz’s “punches in bunches” or Condit’s “kill or be killed” approach that wins the day. It’s a very tough call because Diaz can take punishment just to get off 5-8 punches that his opponents can’t ever seem to block. But can he take Carlos Condit punishment? That’s a big “if” and if he can, he’d be the first. I honestly don’t know who is going to win, but if I had to pick one, I’m picking Condit based off viciousness.
My Pick: Condit, Round 5, Decision
